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Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-11-15 15:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 151451 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Since the prior advisory, Sara has become modestly better organized, with an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showing some improved structural organization of the outer rainbands with the center located near the northern coast of Honduras. The latest set of coastal surface observations suggest that Sara's center might have reformed just offshore overnight, between the Bay Islands and the northern mainland of Honduras. With the improvement on microwave and geostationary satellite imagery, subjective and objective estimates are a bit higher this morning, and the initial intensity was nudged up to 45 kt at 12 UTC, and remains at that value for this advisory. Sara does appear to be slowing down, but still moving generally westward, estimated at 270/4 kt. A large mid-level ridge draped northwestward of Sara is expected to slow the forward motion of the tropical storm to a crawl later today. However, this ridge is then forecast to shift northeastward on Saturday, and Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to west-northwestward motion this weekend, resulting in it moving into the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The model guidance this cycle is quite similar to the prior advisory, and the NHC forecast track is largely an update of the previous one, near the middle of the guidance envelope. Sara's future intensity prior to moving into the Yucatan will largely be governed by if and how far the tropical cyclone is able to remain offshore. The latest track forecast does keep Sara offshore just far enough that it could intensify a bit more before moving onshore in Belize, and the latest NHC intensity is a little higher, showing a 50 kt peak before landfall. This forecast is also roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. After moving into the Yucatan, Sara is expected to quickly weaken, and what remains of the system when it emerges into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico is not very favorable for redevelopment. Ultimately, Sara is expected to open up into a trough, though its remnant moisture will likely be absorbed in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the next shortwave trough ejecting out of the western United States. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala and Belize where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 16.1N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 16.1N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.2N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 16.8N 88.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 17.6N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-11-15 15:47:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 837 FONT14 KNHC 151447 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 4 12(16) 15(31) 14(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUANAJA 50 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 8
2024-11-15 15:47:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 977 WTNT34 KNHC 151447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 ...SARA SLOWING DOWN BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINLAND OF HONDURAS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 86.0W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras. * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Watches and Warnings could be required for portions of these areas later this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued slow westward motion is expected over the next day or so, but a west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before approaching Belize, and ultimately moving onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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