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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 6

2019-10-16 04:35:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 035 WTNT45 KNHC 160235 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 The tropical depression located near the Cabo Verde Islands has become less organized over the past 6 hours. An ASCAT-A overpass at 2154 UTC showed that the depression still had a closed and well-defined center, but the strongest winds were only 20-25 kt. A subsequent ASCAT-B pass about 1 hour later showed slightly higher winds but an elongated circulation. Furthermore, deep convection is limited to a small area of showers located nearly 100 n mi to the east of the depression's center. If its convection continues to decrease, the system could become a remnant low later today. Alternatively, if its circulation continues to become elongated, it could soon open into a trough and dissipate. Either way, it seems unlikely that the depression will remain a tropical cyclone for long, and this shown by all of the models and the official forecast. The depression has made a westward jog since the last advisory, but a longer-term motion estimate is 300/09 kt. The westward jog resulted in a substantial westward shift in the official forecast track, but the system is still expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or two until it dissipates. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the main source of uncertainty is just how quickly the system will open into a trough. The latest ECMWF deterministic forecast and few of its ensemble members indicate that the cyclone could regenerate later this week. However, most other models do not forecast regeneration and the uncertainty is too high to justify explicitly showing this in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.8N 23.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.7N 24.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.6N 25.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 19.6N 27.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 20.8N 29.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 6

2019-10-16 04:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 16 2019 885 WTNT25 KNHC 160234 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 0300 UTC WED OCT 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 23.7W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 23.7W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 23.4W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 24.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.6N 25.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.6N 27.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.8N 29.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 23.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 5

2019-10-15 22:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 152051 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 The multiple circulations mentioned in the previous advisory discussion now appear to have consolidated into a tight low-level center that has recently passed over or near Sal island in the northeastern Cabo Verde archipelago. Deep convection has increased slightly and now consists of an elongated band confined to the eastern semicircle due to modest southwesterly vertical wind shear, leaving the low-level center exposed to the west. A late-arriving 1128Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass indicated several 28-29 kt surface wind vectors within the band of convection, which supports maintaining an intensity of 30 kt. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/09 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement that the large cyclone will move generally northwestward during the next 48 hours or so, followed by a turn to the west-northwest when the expected shallow system will become embedded in the brisk low-level easterly trade wind flow. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies just to the left of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The environmental conditions are expected to only be marginal, so little, if any, strengthening is anticipated during the next 12 hours. By 24 hours and beyond, the combination of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier and more stable air, and SSTs less than 26C should cause steady to rapid weakening, resulting in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipating shortly after 72 hours, if not sooner. Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm as it passes near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 16.8N 22.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.8N 23.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 24.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 19.9N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 21.2N 28.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 23.0N 32.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics

2019-10-15 22:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 20:50:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 20:50:16 GMT

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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2019-10-15 22:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 152049 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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