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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-01 16:40:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011440 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 73.1W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 73.1W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 73.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 35.6N 71.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.5N 68.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.2N 65.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.3N 62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 39.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2020-09-01 10:36:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 08:36:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 08:36:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-01 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS... ...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 the center of Fifteen was located near 34.1, -74.4 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-01 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 023 WTNT35 KNHC 010835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS... ...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 74.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 74.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move away from the North Carolina coast today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Although the depression still has a small chance to become a tropical storm later today, no significant changes in strength are expected during the next couple of days. The system could degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression will continue to affect portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina through this evening, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-01 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 024 WTNT45 KNHC 010835 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Deep convection remains displaced to the east and southeast of the depression's low-level center due to increasing west-northwesterly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt, with no appreciable structural changes having occurred since last evening's ASCAT pass, which showed 25-30 kt winds. The initial motion is toward the northeast, or 050/11 kt, with the depression becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies north of the subtropical ridge. Forecast guidance agrees that the cyclone will turn east-northeastward and then eastward during the next 2-3 days, moving farther out into the Atlantic, although there is greater-than-normal spread among the track models mainly due to speed differences. In particular, the ECMWF is one of the fastest models, while the GFS and UKMET hang the cyclone back to the west a little longer. Since many of the consensus aids, including HCCA, are closer to the faster model solutions, the NHC track forecast leans toward the quicker side of things. UW-CIMSS analyses indicate that the shear has increased to 20-25 kt, and it's only expected to get stronger from here. Some slight strengthening of the depression can't be ruled out during the next 12-24 hours while the shear vector is aligned with the storm motion, but by this time tomorrow the shear is likely to be as strong as 35-45 kt out of the northwest. Therefore, little change in strength is now indicated in the official forecast for the next day or two. The shear magnitude is expected to peak in about 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to be a remnant low at that point, if it hasn't become one already. The GFS dissipates the low in about 48 hours, but since the other models hang onto it a little bit longer, the NHC forecast shows dissipation by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 34.1N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 35.0N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 36.9N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 37.5N 63.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1800Z 37.7N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 37.8N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 39.2N 53.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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