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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-01 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 016 FONT15 KNHC 010835 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-01 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010834 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 74.4W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 74.4W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.9N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.5N 63.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.7N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.8N 58.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 39.2N 53.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 74.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2020-09-01 04:41:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 02:41:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 02:41:00 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-01 04:39:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 010239 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-01 04:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010239 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Tropical Depression Fifteen is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the edge of the deep convection displaced nearly 30 n mi to the east of the exposed low-level center. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier this evening provided SFMR instrument measurements of nearly 30 kt in the southeast quadrant. And, a recent ASCAT overpass showed several wind vectors in that same general area between 25-30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 30 kt. The depression is moving northeast at 12 kt around the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A turn to the east-northeast is expected to occur on Tuesday as the cyclone moves along the northern periphery of the ridge. Late in the forecast period, what is left of the cyclone is forecast to get caught in the flow between building high pressure to its northeast, and an approaching trough to its northwest, which should induce a more northerly component of motion. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. The cyclone has moved into an environment with moderate westerly shear of about 20 kt, as indicated by the latest UW-CIMSS deep-layer shear analysis product. The SHIPS guidance by both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the shear magnitude will more than double between 18 h and 36 h from now. So it is anticipated that the only window of time for the depression to strengthen will be tonight through tomorrow, while the system is over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. After 48 h, when the vertical wind shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 kt, the cyclone is forecast to weaken, and by 96 h the NHC forecast now shows the system degenerating into a remnant low. Exactly what transpires with the cyclone later in the forecast period remains uncertain, as some of the global models suggest that the cyclone will open into a trough in a few days, while others indicate that the system could be absorbed by a larger mid-latitude trough around day 5. Regardless of what occurs by those time frames, the models all suggest that the system should not gain much more strength than it currently has. The official NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 33.2N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 34.2N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 35.1N 71.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 36.0N 68.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 36.9N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 37.7N 63.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 38.1N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 38.7N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 41.6N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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