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Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 33
2017-09-26 10:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 260844 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 52.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 52.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.9N 53.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 30.2N 55.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 30.9N 56.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.2N 56.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.9N 53.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 44.5N 40.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 50.9N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 52.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-26 04:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 02:46:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 02:46:10 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-09-26 04:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 260239 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 The satellite presentation of Lee has improved over the past 6 hours. Cloud tops have cooled and the eye has become more distinct. Dvorak intensity estimates around 0000 UTC from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS ADT were higher than the last advisory, and the intensity estimate from the ADT has gone up even more since then. The initial intensity has been increased only slightly to 80 kt, but it is possible that Lee is a little stronger than that. Lee appears to have moved out of the moderate shear zone associated with an upper-level trough, and is accelerating away from any cold water it may have previously upwelled. Further intensification in the short term seems likely, and this is supported by all of the intensity guidance. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast, and lies between the higher dynamical models (HWRF, HMON), and the lower statistical models (SHIPS, LGEM). After about 36 hours, a sharp increase in northerly shear associated with the outflow from Maria and an approaching mid-latitude trough should cause Lee to weaken. Given the small size of Lee, it is possible that weakening could occur even faster than indicated in the official forecast. Lee has continued to move toward the west-southwest, and the initial motion estimate is 240/7 kt. There is no change to the forecast reasoning, and Lee is expected to move generally westward for the next 36 hours, along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a combination of Maria and the aforementioned trough should cause Lee to recurve and rapidly accelerate toward the northeast. Since Lee is moving a little faster than previously forecast, the NHC forecast has been adjusted westward for the first 36 hours of the forecast, but is generally close to the previous forecast track after that. Lee should be extratropical by no later than day 5, and some of the models indicate that it will be absorbed within a frontal boundary sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 30.2N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 30.2N 52.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 30.5N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 31.0N 55.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 35.3N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 42.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 49.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2017-09-26 04:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 260239 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-26 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 25 the center of Lee was located near 30.2, -51.5 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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