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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-09-23 16:40:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231440 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 Lee remains a compact tropical cyclone as indicated by a 20-kt wind report at 1200Z from ship LAQX5, located only 70 nmi east of the center. A 0943Z WindSAT pass had a few 40-45 uncontaminated wind vectors in the southwestern quadrant, so the intensity has been conservatively increased to 40 kt, which is closer to the satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion is a slow drift toward the north or 360/02 kt, based primarily on microwave satellite fixes. The global and regional models are in general agreement that Lee will move slowly at 5 kt or less for the next 5 days, and either make a wide or a tight anticyclonic turn back toward the west after 72 h due to a building high pressure ridge to the north of the cyclone, and a stationary upper-level low located a few hundred nmi to the south. The GFS makes the widest turn, whereas the ECMWF makes the tightest turn; the remainder of the model guidance lies somewhere between those two extremes. Until the model guidance becomes more convergent, the official NHC forecast track will remain basically down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the blend of the TCVA, TVCX, and HCCA consensus models. Earlier WindSAT and SSMI/S microwave data showed that Lee possessed an 8-10 nmi diameter eye-like feature in both the low- and mid-levels, indicating that the cyclone has a well-defined inner-core wind field, albeit quite small. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models to decrease to 5-10 kt during the next 48 hours or so while Lee remains over SSTs of about 27.5 deg C. In addition, upper-level temperatures are currently running, and are expected to remain, about 3 deg C colder than normal, which should ensure sufficient instability for the generation of inner-core thunderstorm activity through the entire forecast period. Based on the combination of these favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions, Lee is forecast to steadily develop into a hurricane by 48-72 hours, with the only inhibiting factor being occasional intrusions of very dry mid-level air. However, the strong instability/CAPE that will be available should allow for deep convection to more or less persist near the center until modest westerly shear begins to affect the cyclone by 72-120 hours, during which time a slow weakening trend is expected. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and is close to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 31.9N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 32.2N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 32.3N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 31.9N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 31.3N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 30.5N 45.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 29.9N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 30.5N 47.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-23 16:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 23 the center of Lee was located near 31.9, -49.4 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 21
2017-09-23 16:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231439 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 ...LEE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 49.4W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 49.4 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow turn toward the northeast and east is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lee could be near hurricane strength by the end of the weekend. Lee is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2017-09-23 16:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 231439 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Advisory Number 21
2017-09-23 16:39:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231439 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 49.4W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 49.4W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 49.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.2N 49.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 32.3N 48.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.9N 47.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.3N 46.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.5N 45.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 29.9N 45.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 30.5N 47.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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