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Tropical Storm Lee Graphics
2017-09-23 11:00:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 09:00:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 09:22:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-09-23 10:57:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 230856 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-09-23 10:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230855 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 Not much has changed with Lee over the past six hours. The convection previously observed in the SE quadrant appears to have rotated around the tropical storm and faded, but a 0609 UTC SSMI overpass indicates that a new burst has since taken its place. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 30 to 35 kt, so the intensity has been held at 35 kt for this advisory. Every aspect of the forecast is highly uncertain. With regards to intensity, the model forecasts range from dissipation (GFS) to a category 2 or 3 hurricane (HWRF, HMON). Since the environment still appears to be generally favorable for intensification, my forecast remains close to the HWRF, and a little above the intensity consensus through 72 h. The forecast shows gradual weakening after that time as the shear increases. Because Lee is so small, it is very possible that the tropical storm could strengthen far more quickly than indicated here, at just about any time during the forecast period. Likewise, rapid weakening could occur later in the period if the shear increases like the SHIPS diagnostics indicate it will. As uncertain as the intensity forecast is, the track forecast may be even more so. The ECMWF now shows a relatively deep Lee drifting south for the next 72 hours, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On the other hand, the GFS continues to depict a shallow Lee (or its remnants) moving steadily eastward through the forecast period. As a result, these two typically reliable models differ by more than 900 miles at day 5. The new official track forecast is generally close to the corrected consensus models, FSSE and HCCA, but hedges somewhat toward the ECMWF since it's version of Lee is more in line with the NHC intensity forecast. As a result, the NHC track forecast has been shifted significantly to the west, especially at 72 h and beyond, but still lies nearly 400 miles to the east of the ECMWF. Needless to say, confidence in the forecast is low, and significant changes to the track or intensity forecast may be required during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 31.9N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 32.3N 49.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 32.5N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 32.2N 47.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 31.7N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 30.5N 44.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 29.8N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 30.5N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-23 10:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TINY LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 23 the center of Lee was located near 31.9, -49.2 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 20
2017-09-23 10:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230853 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 ...TINY LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 49.2W ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 49.2 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected later today today, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lee could be near hurricane strength by the end of the weekend. Lee is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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