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Tropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-05-09 16:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 091438 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 Deep convection has increased somewhat near the center of the storm, and SFMR observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters continue to support an intensity of 50 kt. Ana will be moving over the cooler waters to the northwest of the Gulf Stream later today, and water vapor imagery shows a belt of upper-level northerly flow advancing toward the tropical cyclone. The decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing northerly shear should cause Ana to weaken as it nears the coast. The official intensity forecast is similar to that from the previous package, and very close to the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN. The initial motion estimate is 320/3. The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged from the past few advisories. Global models continue to predict that the blocking mid-level ridge to the north of Ana will shift eastward and weaken over the next couple of days. These models also show a broad trough moving from the central to the eastern U.S. over the next 72 hours or so. This should result in the cyclone turning northward and north-northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 32.7N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 33.2N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 33.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 34.9N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 36.1N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1200Z 40.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)
2015-05-09 16:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat May 9 the center of ANA was located near 32.7, -77.9 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 7
2015-05-09 16:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091437 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 77.9W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 77.9 West. Ana is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will be very near the coasts of South and North Carolina by Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast as Ana moves over cooler waters close to the coastline. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch area, by this afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts of 5 inches, over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-05-09 16:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 091437 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1500 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 10(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 10(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 8( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) RALEIGH NC 34 3 11(14) 12(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 5(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 13 10(23) 4(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 48 15(63) 3(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) WILMINGTON NC 50 2 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 9(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 34 65 12(77) 3(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) MYRTLE BEACH 50 2 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 18 11(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm ANA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-05-09 16:37:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 091437 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1500 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 77.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 77.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 33.2N 78.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.9N 78.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.9N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 36.1N 77.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 40.0N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 77.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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