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Tropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-05-23 10:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 381 WTNT41 KNHC 230830 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 Satellite images indicate that Ana has contracted significantly since yesterday and now has a compact area of moderate convection around the center. Given the tight low-level circulation, small radius of maximum wind, and compact central convection, Ana is now estimated to have transitioned from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory based on the earlier ASCAT data, which indicated that the tropical-storm-force winds were confined to the south side of the circulation. Ana is not expected to be around much longer. The storm is headed for an environment of lower SSTs, drier air, and increasing wind shear. All of these factors should cause the compact cyclone to lose strength and ultimately open into a trough in 24 to 36 hours. In fact, some of the models suggest that the storm could dissipate even sooner than that. The remnants of Ana will likely be absorbed by a cold front on Monday. The storm continues to increase its forward speed, and the initial motion is now estimated to be 045/10 kt. A faster motion to the northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 35.7N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 36.7N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 39.4N 53.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ana (AT1/AL012021)
2021-05-23 10:29:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun May 23 the center of Ana was located near 35.7, -60.5 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ana Public Advisory Number 5
2021-05-23 10:29:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 230829 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 ...ANA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.7N 60.5W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 60.5 West. Ana is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this heading with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is expected over the next 24 hours and Ana is expected to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Ana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-05-23 10:29:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 230829 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 0900 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Ana Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-05-23 10:29:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 230829 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 0900 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 60.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 60.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.7N 58.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 39.4N 53.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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