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Subtropical Storm Ana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-05-23 04:51:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 230251 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 0300 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
Subtropical Storm Ana Graphics
2021-05-23 04:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 May 2021 02:51:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 May 2021 02:51:50 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-05-23 04:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230251 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 Ana continues to produce a small, but concentrated area of moderate convection near its center. The storm remains embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough axis, and convection near the center has not been deep or expansive enough to result in significant upper-level anticyclonic outflow. This structure suggests that the system remains subtropical. However, scatterometer imagery also indicates that Ana's radius of maximum winds is very small. A recent METOP-B ASCAT pass at 0054 UTC had a peak wind retrieval of 36 kt just southeast of Ana's center. Due to the small size of Ana's wind field and allowing for some undersampling of this instrument, the initial intensity was bumped up to 40 kt for this advisory. Ana has begun to accelerate to the northeast and its initial motion is now 050/8 kt. A continued northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed is expected as deep-layer southwesterly steering flow increases between a deepening mid-latitude trough to the northwest and a subtropical high to the southeast. The upper-level trough axis that Ana remains centered in has kept the tiny cyclone in a small region of light upper-level flow, allowing convection to persist near the center. However, as Ana accelerates northeastward, this trough axis will gradually decay and upper-level northerly flow is expected to increase after 12 h. The resulting increase in northeasterly shear will import dry mid-latitude air and likely strip away the remaining convection associated with Ana by tomorrow night. The latest intensity forecast calls for slow weakening after 12 h with dissipation by 48 h, though it is possible that Ana could dissipate earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 35.0N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 35.8N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 37.5N 56.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 41.1N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ana (AT1/AL012021)
2021-05-23 04:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANA A BIT STRONGER AND MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat May 22 the center of Ana was located near 35.0, -61.4 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Ana Public Advisory Number 4
2021-05-23 04:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 230249 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 ...ANA A BIT STRONGER AND MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.0N 61.4W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 61.4 West. The storm is moving a bit faster toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). Ana is expected to accelerate further to the northeast on Sunday. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next 24 hours and Ana is expected to dissipate by Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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