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Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 25
2024-11-09 15:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091443 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND RAFAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 91.5W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). The storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday, then turn toward the south or south-southwest by Monday night. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast through early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of the Upper Texas Coast into Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-09 15:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND RAFAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 9:00 AM CST Sat Nov 9 the center of Rafael was located near 25.2, -91.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-09 12:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091139 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Near the Bahamas: A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two while it moves westward to west-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible across the Bahamas through Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2024-11-09 09:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 090843 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 24
2024-11-09 09:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090843 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...RAFAEL MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 90.8W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 90.8 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected through today. After that, Rafael is likely to move slowly south-southwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to cause 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of the Piney Woods and Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas as well as Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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