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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-11-13 21:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 132048 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 6(16) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 9(26) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 5(18) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 23(36) 17(53) 7(60) 2(62) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 4(23) 3(26) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Public Advisory Number 1
2024-11-13 21:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 132048 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 79.0W ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta Castilla eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border. The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the Honduras/Nicaragua Border southward to Puerto Cabezas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 79.0 West. The system is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward motion should continue during the next few days, with a decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the western Caribbean Sea and slow as it nears the coast of Central America. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening as it moves near the coast of Central America. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-13 21:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... As of 4:00 PM EST Wed Nov 13 the center of Nineteen was located near 16.2, -79.0 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-11-13 21:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 132047 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.0W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.0W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 79.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-13 18:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131732 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99): A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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