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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-07 13:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
483 ABNT20 KNHC 071136 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or early Friday, and interests there should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-10-07 13:49:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071149 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of 120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours. The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan, and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion. The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. No changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast were made after 36 hours. This special advisory was issued in lieu of the normal intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-10-07 13:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 071147 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 1200Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) 1(34) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 12(40) 1(41) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 13(46) X(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 8(50) X(50) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 8(56) 1(57) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 12(70) X(70) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) X(35) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 12(70) X(70) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) X(35) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 10(64) X(64) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 7(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 5(52) X(52) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 4(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 32(44) X(44) X(44) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 61(71) 2(73) X(73) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 1(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 2(61) X(61) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 74(85) 2(87) X(87) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 54(55) 3(58) X(58) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 71(76) 5(81) X(81) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 3(50) X(50) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 4(57) X(57) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) X(28) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 2(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 7 86(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MERIDA MX 50 X 47(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MERIDA MX 64 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COZUMEL MX 34 1 7( 8) 24(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) X(35) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 18(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics