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Hurricane Milton Update Statement

2024-10-07 15:13:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 071312 CCA TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Corrected distance from Tampa ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches). These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC) advisory. SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Blake


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2024-10-07 13:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

483 ABNT20 KNHC 071136 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or early Friday, and interests there should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 9

2024-10-07 13:49:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071149 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of 120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours. The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan, and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion. The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. No changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast were made after 36 hours. This special advisory was issued in lieu of the normal intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

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