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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-19 19:58:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 191758 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nadine, located just inland over Belize, and has just issued a special advisory upgrading Oscar to a hurricane, located just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Hurricane Oscar are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane Oscar are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 2
2024-10-19 19:57:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 823 WTNT21 KNHC 191757 CCA TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 CORRECTED WIND GUST VALUES HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 70.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-10-19 19:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191755 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989 mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150 m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly, and is substantially higher than the previous one. Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a Tropical Storm Warning. Key Messages: 1. Oscar is now expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning has now been issued for those locations. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening. 3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1800Z 21.4N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics