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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-10-19 19:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191755 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989 mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150 m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly, and is substantially higher than the previous one. Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a Tropical Storm Warning. Key Messages: 1. Oscar is now expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning has now been issued for those locations. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening. 3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1800Z 21.4N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 2
2024-10-19 19:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191754 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Special Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...RECON FINDS TINY OSCAR A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 70.6W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba Provence of Camaguey For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 70.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with a gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds based on aircraft data are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today before gradual weakening begins early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure measured by dropsonde observations is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon, making outside preparations dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, are expected across the Turks and Caicos, southeastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-10-19 19:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 191754 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 22(34) 5(39) X(39) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 13(21) 10(31) X(31) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 9 36(45) 2(47) X(47) 4(51) 4(55) X(55) MAYAGUANA 50 1 11(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) MAYAGUANA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GRAND TURK 64 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 8( 8) 28(36) 8(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics