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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-03 06:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 030534 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the Azores Islands. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Near the Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible during the day or two while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. By early this week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97). Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-03 06:23:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 030523 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Nov 2 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Lane, located over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP93): An area of low pressure located well to the south of the southern tip of Baja California is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some additional development of this slow-moving system, and a tropical depression could form over the next several days. The low is expected to begin an eastward drift in a few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-11-03 03:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Lane's presentation on satellite imagery is quickly becoming disheveled. This evening, a small burst of deep convection has attempted to reform a little east of the estimated center. However, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 2155 UTC suggested the low-level center was starting to separate from this deep convection due to moderate mid- to deep-layer southwesterly shear. A partial ASCAT-B pass did show winds up to 40 kt near the center at around 18 UTC, but given the degradation in Lane's structure since that time, the initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt, in best agreement with the objective intensity estimates from AiDT and SATCON. Continued southwesterly shear combined with increasingly dry environmental air should result in Lane's demise as it loses identity within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The latest NHC forecast shows Lane becoming a remnant low in 24 h and opening up into a trough in 48 h. This evolution could occur sooner than forecast given current trends and the fact several hurricane-regional model trackers lose the vortex over the next day or so. Lane still appears to be moving slowly westward, at an estimated 270/5 kt. As Lane becomes a shallow circulation, it will be primarily steered by the low-level trade wind flow on the north side of the ITCZ, leading to a slow westward to west-southwestward motion until the vortex dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is just a little south of the prior track, given the southward shift in the guidance suite this cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.3N 130.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 11.2N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 11.2N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 11.2N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics