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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-18 19:06:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000ABNT20 KNHC 181706TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Berg [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Erick Graphics
2025-06-18 17:22:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 14:43:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 15:22:28 GMT [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 8
2025-06-18 16:42:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181442 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 Erick has become significantly better organized with an increasingly symmetric and large central convective area with very cold cloud tops. GOES satellite imagery also shows impressive banding structures both to the north and south of the central convective area. The latest subjective Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB range from 65-77 kt, while the recent ADT estimate is in the 65-70 kt range. Since the time of the subjective estimates at 12Z, GOES images suggest that the inner-core stucture has improved significantly and an eye may be forming. The intensity is therefore increased to 75 kt for this advisory, and Erik has begun its anticipated period of rapid intensification. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to Erick, which should provide a better estimate of the intensity. Erick continues moving to the northwest, or 310/7 kt. This general motion, along with perhaps a slight acceleration, is expected through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday along the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and confidence in the overall track is high. Users should keep in mind that small track deviations could still lead to significant changes in where the strongest winds and coastal impacts occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The official forecast track is unchanged from the previous advisory and lies very close to the HCCA aid. Very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions surround Erick, with warm ocean waters, low vertical wind shear and a moist mid-level troposphere, and these conditions are expected to persist through landfall. The 06Z HAFS models are forecasting Erick to become a major hurricane. The various SHIPS rapid intensification indices indicate a high likelihood of continued rapid strengthening over the next 24 h, which would result in Erick becoming a major hurricane. The new NHC forecast explicitly shows Erick becoming a major hurricane, but it's possible this forecast could be conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure continues today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is rapidly intensifying and is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero within the hurricane warning area on Thursday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 13.9N 96.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 14.5N 96.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 98.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics