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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-23 07:35:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 230535 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm John, located just south of southern Mexico. Central Portion of the East Pacific: Showers and thunderstorm activity has diminished somewhat with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable for slow development of this system as it moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through the middle of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2024-09-23 04:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 02:42:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:24:07 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-23 04:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 Satellite images show that the depression is gradually becoming better organized, with some convective banding features developing around the circulation and a small area of very cold cloud tops over the estimated center. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the southern semicircle of the system. Subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB indicate a T-number of 2.0, so the advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for now. Center fixes indicate little movement since earlier today, so the initial motion estimate is nearly stationary. As noted earlier, the track forecast for this tropical cyclone is quite problematic, with a large spread in the guidance models. The regional hurricane models are generally east of the global guidance, with the ECMWF on the western side of the model tracks. The most recent run of the GFS takes the cyclone inland in a couple of days but later develops one or two new centers offshore. Since the dominant steering mechanism seems to be the Central American Gyre, the official track forecast shows a mainly east-northeastward motion during the forecast period, along the southern periphery of the Gyre. This track moves the center close to the southern coast of Mexico for several days before making landfall, and lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. During most of the forecast period, the system should remain over very warm waters with low vertical wind shear and in a moist low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore strengthening is likely, and the official intensity forecast is similar to the statistical-dynamical LGEM guidance. One major source of uncertainty in the forecast is how much the system interacts with land during the next few days. Given the favorable environment, it is possible that the system could become a hurricane before landfall. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should closely monitor the latest forecast updates for this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coast now covered by a Tropical Storm Watch. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday. 3. The system could strengthen more than forecast depending on how long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.9N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.2N 96.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.3N 94.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics