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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 11
2024-07-01 10:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 010857 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 59.9W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 135SE 105SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 59.9W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 59.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.6N 62.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.9N 66.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 70.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.0N 73.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.8N 77.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.4N 81.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N 87.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 59.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-07-01 10:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010855 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Around 0450 UTC, Chris is estimated to have made landfall near Lechuguillas in the Mexican state of Veracruz. Since then, satellite infrared imagery showed an increase in the thunderstorm activity in the eastern portion of the circulation, near the region of the radius of maximum wind which is still over the Bay of Campeche. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Chris should weaken quickly throughout the day as the system moves just north of west at an estimated 280/10 kt inland over eastern Mexico. Simulated satellite data from global models suggest Chris will dissipate over the higher terrain later today and the official forecast now shows dissipation occuring by 12 h, if not sooner. Key messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across portions of eastern Mexico this morning, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected for the next few hours in the tropical storm warnings area in Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 20.1N 97.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-07-01 10:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 010855 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032024 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics