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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2024-07-03 11:05:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jul 2024 09:05:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jul 2024 09:05:20 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-07-03 10:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030854 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Beryl appears to be experiencing the effects of moderate northwesterly shear. The eye has become cloud-filled, and the hurricane's cloud pattern is elongated northeast to southwest. Still, very deep convection is present in the eyewall and the core of the hurricane remains intact. Data from an earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft had maximum flight-level winds of 136 kt and a slightly higher minimum central pressure than the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 125 kt, pending data from the next set of reconnaissance aircraft. The intensity forecast remains rather challenging. The uncertainty starts right away due to noticeable discrepancies in the short-term evolution of the upper-level flow in the global models. The ECMWF global model predicts strong westerly flow from an upper-level trough that would significantly increase the shear over Beryl in the next 24 h and result in rapid weakening. However, the GFS model shows a very different upper-level wind pattern that would result in only moderate vertical wind shear near Beryl and thus, less weakening. The official forecast shows a blend of these solutions and general weakening through 48 h. It should be emphasized that Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Jamaica in the next 12 h, the Cayman Islands early on Thursday, and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. As Beryl emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf Mexico in about 72 h, an upper-level ridge is forecast to build closer to the storm, and more numerical model guidance is showing restrengthening. The official forecast now shows Beryl becoming a hurricane before making landfall along the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and lies a bit below the model consensus. The hurricane has continued its rapid pace across the central Caribbean at around 285/17 kt. A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so. The core of the hurricane should pass near or just south of Jamaica later today, with little change to the forecast near Yucatan. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the storm should turn northwestward as a trough moving over the central US weakens the ridge over the weekend. There is still significant uncertainty in the long-term track forecast, as numerical models showing stronger storms in the Gulf of Mexico are generally on the northern side of the guidance envelope and weaker storms on the southern side. The NHC track forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope, near the multi-model consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica beginning this afternoon and in the Cayman Islands early on Thursday. Residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today. 3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.6N 74.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.3N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 19.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 20.1N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0600Z 21.1N 91.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 25.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2024-07-03 10:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 030854 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 12(30) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 1(34) X(34) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 58(67) 6(73) X(73) X(73) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 62(63) 27(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 10(10) 35(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MONTEGO BAY 34 69 29(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MONTEGO BAY 50 4 48(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) MONTEGO BAY 64 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KINGSTON 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 50 80 6(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) KINGSTON 64 34 8(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) LES CAYES 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics