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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-07-01 16:58:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 011457 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 Satellite and radar data this morning suggest Beryl has completed an eyewall replacement cycle. Radar images from Barbados show a solid ring of deep convection surrounding the warming, well-defined eye of the hurricane. Data collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters this morning confirm that Beryl has strengthened. Dropsondes indicate the central pressure has fallen to around 956 mb, and the earlier flight-level winds and SFMR data supported an intensity of around 115 kt a couple of hours ago. The hurricane's satellite structure has continued to improve this morning, and recent objective satellite estimates justify raising the initial intensity to 120 kt. The core of the powerful hurricane is nearing Carriacou Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine Islands, where conditions are rapidly deteriorating and residents should take action to protect their lives. Aircraft and radar fixes indicate Beryl has jogged northwestward over the past several hours, and the initial estimated motion is west-northwest or 285/17 kt. The hurricane is currently moving across the southern Windward Islands. A mid-level steering ridge to the north of Beryl should steer the hurricane quickly west-northwestward to westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days as a mid-level ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. This portion of the track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and the NHC forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. At days 3-5, there is some increased spread in the track guidance, likely regarding the strength of the steering ridge as Beryl approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. This portion of the forecast was nudged slightly north of the previous one, but still lies south of the consensus aids. Since the eyewall replacement cycle has completed, the updated NHC forecast allows for some additional near-term strengthening based on recent aircraft data and the improved satellite and radar structure of the hurricane. As previously noted, an increase in westerly shear is expected by midweek, which is expected to induce some weakening while Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This is reflected in the latest NHC prediction that follows the multi-model consensus trends. Regardless, Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane through late this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates. Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island. Key Messages: 1. The eyewall of Beryl is moving through the southern Windward Islands. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Take action now to protect your life! Residents in Grenada, the Grenadine Islands, and Carriacou Island should not leave their shelter as destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge are expected during the next few hours. Shelter in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions and do not venture out in the eye of the storm. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through this afternoon. 3. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Jamaica. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 12.4N 61.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 17.2N 79.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/1200Z 20.5N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2024-07-01 16:57:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 011457 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 4(34) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) X(31) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CURACAO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 4(51) X(51) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 43(59) X(59) X(59) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 26(70) 1(71) X(71) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) X(35) X(35) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 14(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 7(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PONCE PR 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 9 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DOMINICA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SAINT VINCENT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT VINCENT 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRENADA 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) GRENADA 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JUANGRIEGO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 12
2024-07-01 16:57:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 011456 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU ISLAND... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada * Tobago A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Trinidad * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 61.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). The eyewall of Beryl is moving across the southern Windward Islands. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Take action now to protect your life! Residents in Grenada, the Grenadine Islands, and Carriacou Island should not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase within the eyewall of Beryl. Remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions and do not venture out in the eye of the storm. Beryl is expected to move quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is currently moving across the southern Windward Islands and will move across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A weather station in Crown Point, Tobago recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). There have been multiple reports of downed trees, flooded streets, power outages and storm surge flooding in the Grenandines, Grenada, Barbados, and Tobago. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the hurricane warning area. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl is moving through portions of the southern Windward Islands, including Carriacou Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine Islands. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Hurricane conditions are possible in Jamaica by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring or imminent in the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in the Grenadines, Tobago, and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics