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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 15
2024-07-02 10:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 020859 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 Beryl remains an impressive category 5 hurricane this morning. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined eye, expanding outflow, and a prominent outer band. Overnight NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data showed the minimum central pressure falling to about 935 mb, and the Tail Doppler Radar measured 170 kt of wind at about 500 m. This supports the initial intensity of 145 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving quickly to west-northwest at an estimated 290/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the north and lies closest to the corrected consensus aid. There is still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 h, with the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico. Beryl's intensity forecast is also rather uncertain. Model guidance all indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. Later on, factors such as the possible interaction with the Jamaican elevated terrain, dry air intrusions, and the structure of the vertical wind shear will all play a role in the rate of weakening. The models show quite a wide range of solutions, with guidance between a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane while it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the aids, showing Beryl as a major hurricane near Jamaica, reaching Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 h before emerging as a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico. This is quite an uncertain forecast beyond a couple of days due to the aforementioned factors. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all of the Cayman Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica on Wednesday. 3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today or Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 14.6N 66.9W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 16.5N 73.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.4N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.2N 80.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 19.3N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2024-07-02 10:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 020856 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 9(54) X(54) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) X(23) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) 1(27) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PT GALLINAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 2(28) X(28) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 26(78) X(78) X(78) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) X(44) X(44) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 56(57) 30(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 18(18) 37(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) 86(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 60(60) 10(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 37(37) 9(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) LES CAYES 34 X 24(24) 18(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) LES CAYES 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 25(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 3 63(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) CAPE BEATA 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-02 10:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2 the center of Beryl was located near 14.6, -66.9 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 935 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 165 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics