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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-07-02 16:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 021441 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, along with satellite imagery, suggest that Beryl peaked in intensity around 10-12Z. Since then, the aircraft data show that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 938 mb and that the maximum flight-level winds have decreased a little. In addition, satellite imagery indicates some decay in the cloud pattern. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt. The initial motion is a quick 285/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion should bring the center near Jamaica in 24-36 h and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico around 72 h. After that, there is a significant spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern United States. Thus, there remains considerable uncertainty in the track forecast during the latter part of the forecast period. The intensity forecast also remains uncertain. There is general agreement in the guidance that Beryl should weaken due to westerly shear and possible land interaction as it approaches Jamaica. However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the hurricane. The new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and this portion of the forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. There is considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to uncertainties as to how long the storm will remain over water and partly due to uncertainties in how the cyclone will interact with an upper-level trough to the west. This part of the forecast lies in the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for all of the Cayman Islands and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. 2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday. 3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today or Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 15.3N 68.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 16.2N 71.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.0N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 24.0N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-02 16:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2 the center of Beryl was located near 15.3, -68.9 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 938 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 16
2024-07-02 16:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 021440 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 ...BERYL CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 68.9W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings will be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more toward the west on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the central Caribbean Sea today and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. The center is forecast to approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday night. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast later today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as it moves into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola later today. Hurricane conditions could begin on Thursday across the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica and the southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 10 inches across the Barahona Peninsula in southwest Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so. Swells are expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics