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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 25
2024-07-04 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042036 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that left the storm around 17Z reported that the central pressure had risen to near 974 mb, and also reported flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of 95 kt. Since that time, as happened yesterday afternoon, despite the ongoing shear the eye has become better defined in both satellite imagery and in radar data from Grand Cayman and Cuba. Given this increase in central core organization, the initial intensity will be held at 95 kt pending the arrival of the next aircraft near 00Z. Satellite imagery also shows that the outflow has become better defined in the northeastern semicircle. The initial motion is 285/17, although the last several satellite images suggest a westward wobble is in progress. There is again little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next day or so, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in 12-18 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at around 30 h. After that, Beryl should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the western Gulf coast between 72-96 h. There is still some spread in the track guidance regarding a landfall location, with the range of possibilities from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast. Users are reminded that the average track forecast error at day 3 is about 100 miles and at day 4 is about 150 miles, and so it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new official forecast is a little north of the previous forecast through 24 h and similar to the previous forecast after that. It is unclear whether the current developments with the hurricane core and outflow are temporary or a sign that the westerly shear has somewhat abated. The intensity forecast follows the premise that the shear has not fully abated and that Beryl will weaken before landfall. However, even the intensity guidance that forecasts weakening keeps Beryl at hurricane strength at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Additional weakening should occur while the center is over land. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the guidance does not forecast a lot of strengthening, but conditions appear generally favorable and the intensity forecast continues to show Beryl at hurricane strength before landfall on the western Gulf coast. It should be noted that the dynamical models suggest that the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last 12-18 hr before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to intensify before that time. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. 3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.5N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 86.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 21.6N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 22.6N 93.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-04 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF BERYL HEADING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 the center of Beryl was located near 19.5, -84.3 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 25
2024-07-04 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 042035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...CENTER OF BERYL HEADING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas and northeastern Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast before the center makes landfall, with additional weakening expected while Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Slow re-intensification is expected when Beryl moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by tonight or early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, later today into Friday across the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated across the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall will be diminishing across the Cayman Islands this evening. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics