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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2024-06-30 16:48:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2024 14:48:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2024 15:23:00 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-06-30 16:45:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 301445 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 Data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters this morning indicate that Beryl continues to rapidly intensify. Based on the data collected, the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to 964 mb and the maximum wind speed is now up to 105 kt. Although Beryl is still on the small side, the wind field is a little larger than previously noted with the tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend up to 100 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds up to 25 n mi from the eye. Satellite images show that Beryl has a classic major hurricane pattern with a clear and circular eye and symmetric convective pattern surrounding it. Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. The hurricane has been moving a little to the south of most of the model predictions over the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl across the Windward Islands Monday morning and then across much the Caribbean Sea during the following few days. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the south of the previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids. The major hurricane has rapidly intensified since it formed a couple of days ago, and given the continued conducive environmental conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl's intensity to level off and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days. The intensity forecast is a little above the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be rushed to completion today. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through Monday. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week and interests in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress, There is large forecast uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and users should not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 10.7N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 8
2024-06-30 16:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 301445 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...VERY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 54.9W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Trinidad has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Trinidad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada * Tobago A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Trinidad A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 54.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Beryl is expected to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting late tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics