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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 11
2024-07-01 10:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 010857 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...BERYL TAKING AIM AT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 59.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF GRENADA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada * Tobago A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Trinidad A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 59.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands this morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). Grantley Adams International Airport on Barbados recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early this morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting soon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting this morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in the Grenadines and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-07-01 10:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010855 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Around 0450 UTC, Chris is estimated to have made landfall near Lechuguillas in the Mexican state of Veracruz. Since then, satellite infrared imagery showed an increase in the thunderstorm activity in the eastern portion of the circulation, near the region of the radius of maximum wind which is still over the Bay of Campeche. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Chris should weaken quickly throughout the day as the system moves just north of west at an estimated 280/10 kt inland over eastern Mexico. Simulated satellite data from global models suggest Chris will dissipate over the higher terrain later today and the official forecast now shows dissipation occuring by 12 h, if not sooner. Key messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across portions of eastern Mexico this morning, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected for the next few hours in the tropical storm warnings area in Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 20.1N 97.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-07-01 10:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 010855 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032024 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics