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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 7
2024-06-30 10:55:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 300855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...BERYL CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...FORECAST TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 53.1W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Tobago A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 53.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands early on Monday and across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday night and Tuesday. Satellite estimates indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to become an extremely dangerous hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early on Monday. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 7
2024-06-30 10:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 300854 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 53.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 45SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 53.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 52.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 53.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-06-30 07:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 300549 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Beryl, located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): A broad area of low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the midweek while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics