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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2024-07-02 04:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 020248 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 17(44) 1(45) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) X(31) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) X(27) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CURACAO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 53(68) X(68) X(68) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 1(35) X(35) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 11(11) 67(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 42(42) 46(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 10(10) 48(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 30(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 8( 8) 19(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 1 53(54) 7(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CAPE BEATA 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PONCE PR 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-02 04:48:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1 the center of Beryl was located near 13.8, -64.9 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 938 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 14
2024-07-02 04:48:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020248 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...BERYL BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 64.9W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 64.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). Beryl is forecast to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Tuesday and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday. Recent data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicates that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is now a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to still be near major hurricane intensity as its moves into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday. Some more weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast on Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola by late Tuesday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, in portions of Jamaica on Wednesday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. Rainfall from outer bands of Beryl may impact portions of Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late tonight into Tuesday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics