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Hurricane ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-07-06 22:45:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062045 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 9 31 49 46 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 9 30 43 39 42 TROPICAL STORM 24 40 64 54 25 12 12 HURRICANE 76 59 26 8 1 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 48 21 7 1 X X HUR CAT 2 5 8 4 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 2 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 60KT 45KT 30KT 20KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 16(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 13(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 2 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 13 15(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 78 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) MANZANILLO 34 45 1(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 32(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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