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Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2018-05-27 22:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 272039 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 2100 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 24 8(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ST MARKS FL 34 29 5(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) APALACHICOLA 34 73 6(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) APALACHICOLA 50 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 290N 850W 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 61 22(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) PANAMA CITY FL 50 4 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 24 39(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 8(10) 14(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) WHITING FLD FL 34 8 28(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 9 23(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 18 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MOBILE AL 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 10

2018-05-27 22:39:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 272039 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 After the increase in organization overnight and this morning, dry mid-level air has wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the circulation, resulting in an overall decrease in deep convection in all but the southeastern portion of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT and reconnaissance aircraft data supported an initial wind speed of 45 kt, and that intensity will be maintained for this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening. The main question regarding the future intensity of Alberto is whether or not the dry air will continue to be ingested near the center of the cyclone, or whether deep convection is able to regenerate overnight while the system is over marginally warm SSTs and within a low shear environment. It is assumed that some convection will redevelop to help maintain Alberto's intensity, but that the environment will not be favorable enough to allow for significant strengthening. As a result, little change in intensity is forecast before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Alberto appears to have turned north-northwestward with an initial motion estimate of 345/12 kt. The cyclone should move northwestward to north-northwestward tonight before turning back northward on Monday as it becomes vertically aligned with the upper-level low. After that time, the system should continue moving northward between the western Atlantic ridge and a mid-upper level trough that approaches the central U.S. around mid-week. The dynamical models are in much better agreement on Alberto's track during the next 2 to 3 days, and the NHC track has been been adjusted accordingly. The new track is slightly west of and slower than the previous track during the first 24 to 36 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through Tuesday. 2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 28.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 10

2018-05-27 22:38:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 272038 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 ...ALBERTO TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 85.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued south of the Anclote River. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued along the northern Gulf Coast west of Navarre, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northwest motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday night or Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20-25 inches. The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 10 inches. Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area tonight and continue through Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight across the central and northern Florida peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 10

2018-05-27 22:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 272038 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 2100 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE ANCLOTE RIVER. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEST OF NAVARRE... FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CRYSTAL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.2W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.2W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 85.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 9A

2018-05-27 19:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 271743 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 200 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 ...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 84.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued south of the Middle of Longboat Key. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Middle of Longboat Key to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur later today or tonight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area tonight or Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move northward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression by Monday night or Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 20 inches. The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 10 inches. Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches. Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward in the warning area along the west coast of Florida today and will reach the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida peninsula today. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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