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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 28

2017-10-16 04:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160252 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 Within just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection near Ophelia's center has been sheared off well to the north, and the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure. Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal. The powerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with recent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt to account for undersampling. The occluded low is forecast to gradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is likely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours. Despite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still likely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to portions of western Ireland on Monday. Ophelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past 6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion estimate is northward, or 010/38 kt. Now that occlusion is complete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north- northeastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within the next 12 hours. That heading should continue for the ensuing day or two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night. The dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from the previous one. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center now that Ophelia has become post-tropical. Local forecasts, warnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical cyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will continue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom Monday and Monday night. Strong winds and heavy rain are likely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. 2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of the NHC forecast cone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 49.2N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 61.9N 0.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

2017-10-16 04:52:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 160252 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 13.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Public Advisory Number 28

2017-10-16 04:51:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160251 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 ...OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...49.2N 13.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph (70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western Norway by Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie/. Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 28

2017-10-16 04:51:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160251 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 38 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 240SE 240SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 400SE 660SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 13.4W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 60SE 70SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 120NW. 34 KT...220NE 290SE 290SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 61.9N .1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.2N 13.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 27

2017-10-15 22:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152042 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 Ophelia's cloud structure is declining rapidly, and microwave and shortwave IR imagery indicate that the low-level and mid-level centers are becoming separated. However, some deep convection is still present near Ophelia's center, and an SSMIS pass from 1827 UTC indicated that the hurricane still has an inner core that is separated from a front to the north and west. The estimated maximum winds have been decreased slightly to 75 kt given the overall decay of the cloud structure. However, the cyclone's favorable position relative to an upper-level jet streak is likely contributing to deepening of the low as the wind field expands substantially. Only a slight decrease in the maximum winds is therefore expected before the post-tropical cyclone reaches Ireland. After that time, interaction with land while the cyclone occludes should cause it to weaken more rapidly. Around 48 h, the cyclone's circulation is likely to become ill-defined and dissipate near the western coast of Scandinavia. Ophelia has continued to move toward the north-northeast, and the initial motion estimate remains 025/33 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning since Ophelia is already embedded within the flow associated with a large mid-latitude trough. This should keep Ophelia on a north-northeast heading as it passes over Ireland and the UK on Monday. The dynamical guidance remains in very good agreement on the track of Ophelia, and very little change has been made to the track forecast. Since Ophelia will be post-tropical as it approaches Ireland and the UK, strong winds and rain will arrive over land areas sooner than the center. For more information on local impacts, consult products from local meteorological services in Ireland and the United Kingdom for more information. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. 2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of the NHC forecast cone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 44.6N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 49.2N 11.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1800Z 54.3N 7.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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