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Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence Public Advisory Number 74

2018-09-17 23:19:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

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Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2018-09-17 22:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 598 FONT15 KNHC 172037 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BURKE/BLAKE

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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 21

2018-09-17 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 810 WTNT45 KNHC 172036 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 Tropical Depression Joyce has proven to be resilient. Visible satellite imagery over the eastern Atlantic today showed a fairly prolonged burst of deep convection near and just east of the center. In the grand scheme of things, the circulation of Joyce is still relatively dry and free of thunderstorms, but this batch of convection causes us to maintain a 30-knot intensity at advisory time. Joyce had turned decidedly to the southeast since 15Z, and this fits in with the model guidance - all of which showed a very strong track consensus that curves the system down away from the westerlies, with the track eventually turning toward the southwest, suppressed by a developing flat ridge around 35 degrees north. Over time, this track will put Joyce in an environment characterized by less shear, but also marginal sea surface temperatures and very dry mid-level air. This should cause deep convection to diminish, and gradually reduce Joyce's winds and structure to a post-tropical low - noting that all the global models lose definition on this system just after 72 hours. The lastest official track is near the consensus of the tightly clustered guidance, and represents no significant change since the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 33.7N 27.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 31.8N 26.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z 30.8N 27.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 30.1N 28.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z 28.7N 31.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Burke/Blake

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Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 21

2018-09-17 22:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 528 WTNT35 KNHC 172035 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 ...JOYCE CONTINUES AS A DEPRESSION TURNING SOUTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 27.4W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 27.4 West. The depression is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue while turning toward the south on Tuesday and southwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Burke/Blake

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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 21

2018-09-17 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 079 WTNT25 KNHC 172035 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 27.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 27.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 27.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.8N 26.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.8N 27.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.1N 28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.7N 31.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 27.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BURKE/BLAKE

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