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Hurricane Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

2021-07-07 04:46:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 366 FONT15 KNHC 070246 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) X(22) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 10(25) X(25) X(25) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26) X(26) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 7(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 3( 4) 25(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 8(10) 32(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 22(23) 27(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 46(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 70(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) WAYCROSS GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 36(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 55(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 49 42(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GAINESVILLE FL 50 2 26(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) THE VILLAGES 34 51 17(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) THE VILLAGES 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CEDAR KEY FL 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CEDAR KEY FL 50 50 10(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CEDAR KEY FL 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 3 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) APALACHICOLA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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