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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2018-09-12 04:53:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 876 FONT11 KNHC 120253 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) 1(17) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19) X(19) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 3(23) X(23) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 5(26) 1(27) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 16(23) 4(27) 1(28) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 9(36) 1(37) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 27(38) 7(45) 1(46) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 40(54) 12(66) 2(68) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) X(21) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 28(46) 6(52) 1(53) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 29(48) 5(53) 1(54) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 28(48) 6(54) 1(55) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 25(61) 8(69) X(69) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 3(22) X(22) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 44(57) 15(72) 3(75) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 10(27) 1(28) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 43(72) 11(83) 2(85) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 8(44) 1(45) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) 1(20) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 32(77) 7(84) 1(85) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 7(47) 1(48) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 4( 4) 62(66) 21(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 11(46) 3(49) X(49) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 43(49) 37(86) 7(93) 1(94) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 43(56) 13(69) 1(70) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 9(42) 1(43) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 39(49) 20(69) 3(72) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) 2(27) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 46(88) 8(96) 2(98) X(98) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 47(51) 23(74) 3(77) 1(78) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 24(45) 5(50) 1(51) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) 74(78) 19(97) 2(99) 1(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 22(22) 53(75) 11(86) 2(88) X(88) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 17(58) 2(60) X(60) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 4( 4) 70(74) 23(97) 2(99) 1(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 19(19) 56(75) 13(88) 2(90) X(90) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 18(64) 4(68) X(68) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 49(90) 8(98) 1(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 25(84) 4(88) 1(89) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 32(62) 5(67) 1(68) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 54(86) 11(97) 1(98) 1(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 28(80) 5(85) 1(86) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 34(58) 7(65) X(65) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) 55(58) 36(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 10(10) 54(64) 20(84) 3(87) X(87) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 27(63) 5(68) 1(69) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 45(76) 10(86) 2(88) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 15(55) 2(57) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) 1(28) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 40(50) 17(67) 4(71) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 12(26) 3(29) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 53(68) 23(91) 3(94) X(94) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 37(63) 9(72) 1(73) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 8(46) 2(48) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 28(28) 48(76) 16(92) 2(94) X(94) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 33(61) 6(67) 2(69) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 9(43) 1(44) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 34(41) 36(77) 6(83) 1(84) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 31(38) 10(48) 2(50) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) 1(26) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 38(55) 12(67) 2(69) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 3(31) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 29(36) 15(51) 3(54) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 3(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 5(20) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 22(26) 19(45) 5(50) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 19(24) 13(37) 5(42) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 4(22) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 5(21) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 4(23) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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