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Hurricane Francine Forecast Advisory Number 13
2024-09-11 22:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 112055 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.5W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 120SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.5W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 92.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.8N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.3N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.0N 90.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.7N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.3N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 91.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Seven Graphics
2024-09-11 22:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:48:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 21:28:56 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-11 22:43:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112043 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 Satellite images show there has been little change with the depression this afternoon. Although deep convection has faded some, this is pretty typical at this time of day. The initial wind speed will stay 30 kt, similar to the recent objective and subjective Dvorak classifications. The depression is still moving 285/16, and little change to the motion is expected over the next 36 to 48 hours before its forward speed slows in response to the approach of an amplifying mid-level trough over the Atlantic. The big change to note is that most of the guidance is significantly slower and now start to recurve the system around day 5 (rather than continue westward). The new forecast is a lot slower than the previous one and future adjustments could be made if later guidance continue this trend (continuity prevents a larger change). Generally low wind shear and warm waters for the first couple of days should allow the depression to strengthen during that time. Thereafter, an increase in westerly shear and possible dry air intrusions could prevent further intensification, but this is still a pretty uncertain forecast at long range due to the track uncertainty. Most of the models are a bit lower beyond 2 days, and the new NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 16.2N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 17.0N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 17.8N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 18.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 19.6N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 20.2N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 20.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics