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Hurricane Francine Public Advisory Number 11A

2024-09-11 13:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 111143 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING FRANCINE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 93.3W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 93.3 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible this morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches). An oil platform near the center recently reported a pressure of 977.7 mb (28.87 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today and tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven


Category:Transportation and Logistics

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2024-09-11 13:40:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 111140 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Francine, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a couple hundred miles off the coast of Louisiana. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into the central Tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slight development during the next day or two while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. East of the Leeward Islands: A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry air near the system is expected to limit additional development over the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic: In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week as the system meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

Hurricane Francine Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2024-09-11 11:27:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 09:27:34 GMT


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

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