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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 10
2024-09-25 22:57:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 252056 TCDAT4 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A ragged eye is becoming apparent in visible satellite imagery and has also been observed in recent radar data from Cancun and western Cuba. Based on the improved structure, the initial intensity is set at 75 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. This is also supported by the earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, which measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 81 kt. Helene has turned northward (355/9 kt) and is expected to accelerate toward the north or north-northeast during the next 24-36 hours as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and crosses the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, the system is forecast to interact with a deep-layer trough to the west and turn northwestward with a decrease in speed over the Tennessee Valley. The environment appears primed for significant strengthening while Helene moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track more or less runs along the axis of the Loop Current during the next 24 hours, where ocean temperatures are about 30 degrees Celsius. In addition, Helene will be moving through an environment of low vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Some of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at 24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes landfall Thursday evening. Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor has been indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. 3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible. 4. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening where Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible this evening within the Hurricane Watch area. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 32.1N 84.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z 36.1N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/0600Z 37.1N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1800Z 36.8N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-09-25 22:56:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 252056 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 33(33) 36(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 8( 8) 43(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 6( 6) 52(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 9( 9) 40(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 7( 7) 31(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 18(18) 46(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 9( 9) 14(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) THE VILLAGES 34 X 27(27) 26(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ORLANDO FL 34 X 17(17) 12(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 18(18) 13(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 34 X 19(19) 13(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 16(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) W PALM BEACH 34 X 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 7 15(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) KEY WEST FL 34 19 24(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) NAPLES FL 34 8 44(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) FT MYERS FL 34 5 40(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) VENICE FL 34 8 66(74) 4(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) VENICE FL 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 2 65(67) 12(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) TAMPA FL 50 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 57(57) 31(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 16(16) 81(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 1( 1) 64(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 34 X 24(24) 74(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ST MARKS FL 50 X 2( 2) 62(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) APALACHICOLA 34 X 53(53) 45(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) APALACHICOLA 50 X 9( 9) 80(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) APALACHICOLA 64 X 1( 1) 61(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 74(77) 22(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 27(27) 66(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 6( 6) 65(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 35(35) 55(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 4( 4) 62(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 9( 9) 38(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALBANY GA 34 X 7( 7) 85(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) 45(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 2( 2) 69(71) 8(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MACON GA 34 X 1( 1) 66(67) 8(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MACON GA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DOTHAN AL 34 X 7( 7) 76(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 32(35) 17(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 5 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 28 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Graphics
2024-09-25 22:53:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 20:53:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 20:53:54 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics