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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46
2017-09-10 16:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 101449 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ATLANTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 18(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) KINGS BAY GA 34 6 42(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 38(43) 18(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 8 46(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 8 51(59) 6(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 24 69(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GAINESVILLE FL 50 1 53(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 48 34(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) DAYTONA BEACH 50 3 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 68 30(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) THE VILLAGES 50 5 72(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) THE VILLAGES 64 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ORLANDO FL 34 80 14(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ORLANDO FL 50 8 50(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ORLANDO FL 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 78 8(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) COCOA BEACH FL 50 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 78 8(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) PATRICK AFB 50 6 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 84 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) FT PIERCE FL 50 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 50 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 50 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FT LAUDERDALE 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 50 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) MIAMI FL 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 64 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) VENICE FL 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 92 4(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) VENICE FL 64 55 24(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) TAMPA FL 34 91 8(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 35 60(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) TAMPA FL 64 4 74(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) CEDAR KEY FL 34 43 53(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CEDAR KEY FL 50 4 72(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 49(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 41(46) 25(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 6 51(57) 16(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ST MARKS FL 50 X 12(12) 26(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ST MARKS FL 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 34 6 35(41) 6(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) APALACHICOLA 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 35(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 20(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 9( 9) 29(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 32 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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