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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 11
2024-10-02 10:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 020843 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 43.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 44.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.7N 46.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.4N 49.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.3N 50.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 30.8N 50.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 37.4N 44.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 180NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112024)
2024-10-02 07:41:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 12:00 AM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.7, -94.7 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 2A
2024-10-02 07:41:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020541 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 1200 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 94.7W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 94.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the depression will likely move inland later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast, and it could become a tropical storm this morning. Weakening is expected after landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning later this morning and are possible in the watch area this afternoon. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics