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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 17
2024-10-03 16:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 031439 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 45.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 45.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 45.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 47.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.8N 48.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.6N 49.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 29.7N 49.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N 48.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 95NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 150SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 40.3N 40.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 280SE 220SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 45.4N 27.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. 34 KT...280NE 280SE 240SW 260NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 45.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-10-03 16:38:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 531 WTNT43 KNHC 031438 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Leslie is becoming better organized this morning. An earlier microwave pass depicted a more well-defined center with better defined curved banding features. Recent satellite-derived wind data depicts max winds around 38-40 kt. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 35-40 kt. Given the improved organizational structure and satellite trends will lean towards the higher end of these estimates with an initial intensity of 40 kt. The tropical storm is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion of 260/4 kt to the south of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. As we move into Friday and this weekend the system will gradually turn west-northwestward then northwestward increasing its forward speed rounding the subtropical ridge. Model guidance is tightly clustered and in fairly good agreement. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous, and lies near the simple and corrected consensus aids. The system is still feeling some of the effects of the outflow of Kirk, however as Kirk begins to move further away shear is forecast to weaken. The oceanic and atmospheric environmental conditions are conducive for steady strengthening with warm sea surface temperature and plenty of moisture. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper-end of the guidance envelope given the improved structure and favorable environment, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. Towards the end of the forecast period the intensity forecast plateaus given the system is forecast to track behind the cold wake of Hurricane Kirk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 10.1N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-03 16:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Leslie was located near 10.1, -30.8 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics