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Remnants of Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 9
2024-10-03 22:39:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032039 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Eleven-E Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH... ...REMNANTS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 94.6W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Ther are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Although the warnings have been discontinued, interests in southeastern Mexico should continue monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Eleven-E were located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 94.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the remnants of the depression should move inland over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec later today or tonight. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the remnants are forecast to dissipate over Mexico on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, mainly in offshore flow to the north and west of the remnants. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon and tonight. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, is expected across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the Remnants of Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by the Remnants of Eleven-E are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants please see forecasts issued by the Meteorological Service of Mexico and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-10-03 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 032038 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Leslie is becoming better organized this afternoon, but continues to battle wind shear due to the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. The center is becoming more well-defined on visible satellite imagery and convection is increasing along the southern semi-circle. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB show a Data-T number of 3.0, corresponding with the initial intensity of 45 kt. The tropical storm is drifting westward at 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge in the eastern Atlantic. Leslie is forecast to move slowly westward over the next day or so before gradually turning west-northwestward, then accelerating to the northwest this weekend. Model guidance has shifted slightly westward, and the official NHC track forecast has followed suit and lies near the simple consensus aids. Leslie has been slowly strengthening today. Steady strengthening is expected over the next 36-48 hr as the shear from Hurricane Kirk lessen, and Leslie moves through a more favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. The spread in model intensity guidance has increased this afternoon, and the hurricane models have suggested the potential for rapid strengthening. The official NHC intensity forecast lies near the simple consensus aids, although it still lies below some of the regional hurricane models and HCCA. The intensity forecast will plateau by the end of the forecast period as Leslie moves into the cold wake of Kirk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 10.9N 35.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 11.7N 36.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 12.6N 37.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 13.7N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.3N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 19.3N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-03 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Leslie was located near 10.1, -31.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics