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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 20

2024-10-04 10:44:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040844 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 48.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 48.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 47.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.6N 49.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.7N 50.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N 46.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.8N 42.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 47.0N 14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW 30NW. 34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART


Category:Transportation and Logistics

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2024-10-04 07:21:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 040521 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2024-10-04 07:07:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 040507 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98): A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited development is possible on Friday while the low moves slowly northward or north-northeastward, but atmospheric conditions should become less conducive and prevent further development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter, some slow development is possible while the system drifts northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

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