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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-10-03 10:39:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030839 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 After going through a period of rapid intensification, Kirk appears to have stopped intensifying, at least temporarily, and there are signs in satellite imagery that a dry slot has wrapped into the circulation. Subjective final-T numbers have decreased slightly from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is set at 105 kt, near the CI numbers. Kirk continues to move northwestward (315/9 kt), which should continue for the next 36 hours while the hurricane moves along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical high. After 36 hours, Kirk is forecast to recurve between the high and a deep-layer trough over the western/central Atlantic, eventually moving northeastward by late Sunday or Monday. There is lower-than-normal spread among the track guidance, including the global model ensembles, and overall the new NHC track prediction is not changed much from the previous advisory. The hurricane is expected to move through a moist, low-shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, with sea surface temperatures actually warming by a degree or two up to 30 deg Celsius. If Kirk can avoid further intrusions of dry air into the eye, then the environment should be able to support strengthening to category 4 strength. The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end of the guidance during the short term. After 36 hours, increasing deep-layer shear is likely to induce a gradual weakening trend, but interaction with a baroclinic energy source should help the storm to maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast period. Based on thickness fields from the global models, Kirk is now forecast to be extratropical by day 5. Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-03 10:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Kirk was located near 20.0, -45.0 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 16
2024-10-03 10:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 45.0W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1645 MI...2645 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 45.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics