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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 24
2024-10-05 10:40:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050840 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 The eye of Kirk has become ragged and cloud filled during the past several hours. The satellite presentation suggests that southwesterly shear and intrusions of dry air are negatively affecting the hurricane, as a pronounced dry slot is noted on the western side of Kirk. As a result of these structural changes, the satellite intensity estimates have decreased overnight. Based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB with recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt. Kirk continues to turn more northward (340/11 kt) within the flow between a shortwave trough over the west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. The track models agree that Kirk should keep recurving to the northeast and east-northeast through early next week while accelerating within strong mid-latitude flow. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk passing to the north of the Azores on Monday as an extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. No significant changes were made to the updated NHC prediction. The environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly hostile over the coming days, with a marked increase in shear and a drier environment surrounding the hurricane while it moves over progressively cooler waters. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early next week. Kirk should lose tropical characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone between 60-72 h, which is supported by the global model fields and simulated satellite imagery. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening, close to or slightly above the latest HCCA aid. However, note that the wind field of the cyclone is forecast to remain quite large through the 5-day forecast period. Large and powerful Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 26.2N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 31.9N 49.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 35.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 43.4N 28.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 52.0N 4.5E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2024-10-05 10:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 631 FONT12 KNHC 050839 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-05 10:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Kirk was located near 26.2, -50.2 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics