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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-10-05 10:37:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 A 0552 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed that Leslie still has a well-defined mid-level eye, and deep convection continues to burst over the center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, while objective numbers are overall a bit higher than that. Therefore, Leslie's intensity is now estimated to be 70 kt. Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (290/6 kt), with the cyclone still located along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to remain entrenched and strengthen over the eastern Atlantic during the next several days, which should cause Leslie to move northwestward and accelerate a bit by Tuesday and Wednesday. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids, and nearly lies on top of the previous prediction. The intensity forecast is the most challenging part of this advisory. Deep-layer shear is relatively low at the moment and should remain so for the next 24 hours or so. This is the period where the NHC forecast shows additional strengthening, and is close to the statistical-dynamical models near the top end of the guidance. Increased shear, combined with Leslie potentially moving over Kirk's cold wake, could cause some weakening after 24 hours. All of the intensity models support this scenario, however they differ significantly in how much weakening will occur. The NHC forecast continues to show Leslie maintaining hurricane status through day 5, mainly following the SHIPS model. However, the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, as well as several of the hurricane regional models, suggest that Leslie could weaken below hurricane intensity by 48 hours. Downward adjustments to the intensity forecast may be required in future advisories if this trend continues. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 10.7N 34.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 12.1N 36.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 13.2N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 14.6N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 15.9N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.4N 43.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 22.3N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2024-10-05 10:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 050837 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-05 10:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EAST ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Leslie was located near 10.7, -34.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics