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Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2024-10-03 04:38:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 030238 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-10-03 04:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030237 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the system has become better organized with convective bands wrapping about two-thirds of the way around the center. A partial ASCAT pass from around 2230 UTC showed winds very close to tropical storm force northeast of the center. Since the system has continued to become organized since the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Leslie. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with a 2.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB. Leslie is moving slowly to the west at about 5 kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 2 to 3 days as Leslie remains steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. Beyond that time, a slightly faster motion to the northwest is predicted as the storm moves on the western periphery of the ridge and approaches a broad trough over the central Atlantic. The models are in fair agreement overall, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Leslie is currently in a moderate wind shear environment due to the outflow from major Hurricane Kirk to its northwest. However, the shear is expected to lessen while Leslie remains over warm waters and in a moist environment. These condition should support steady strengthening during the next few days, and the official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one. Beyond a few days, Leslie is predicted to move over Kirk's prior track and associated cool wake, and into a slightly drier air mass. These conditions could cause the intensity to level off. The new forecast is in best agreement with the latest HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 10.4N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 12.2N 37.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 14.3N 39.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 17.0N 42.9W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 15
2024-10-03 04:37:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030237 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 44.5W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 80SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 44.5W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 45.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 47.1W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 50.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 36.8N 45.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 150NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 43.9N 35.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 210SW 230NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 44.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics