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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-09-19 02:19:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0000 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 190019 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0000 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 AT 0000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 28(51) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 18(67) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 16(42) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 49(76) 6(82) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 8(55) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 6(36) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 3(23) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 2(19) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 22(67) 3(70) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 21(36) 1(37) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 45(52) 8(60) 1(61) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 6(28) X(28) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) PONCE PR 34 X 3( 3) 34(37) 51(88) 7(95) X(95) X(95) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 53(58) 15(73) 1(74) X(74) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 17(52) X(52) X(52) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 60(76) 17(93) 1(94) X(94) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 33(72) 1(73) X(73) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 31(51) X(51) X(51) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 3( 4) 46(50) 44(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 10(10) 59(69) 13(82) X(82) X(82) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) 16(63) X(63) X(63) VIEQUES PR 34 1 7( 8) 72(80) 18(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 X 1( 1) 32(33) 46(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 13(13) 43(56) 6(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 10(12) 71(83) 12(95) 2(97) X(97) X(97) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 36(37) 29(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 12(12) 27(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) SAINT CROIX 34 2 34(36) 59(95) 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 X 3( 3) 66(69) 17(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 42(42) 21(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 59(62) 20(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) SAINT MAARTEN 50 1 4( 5) 13(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 31 64(95) 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 32(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARBUDA 34 27 39(66) 2(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) BARBUDA 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 77 16(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ANTIGUA 50 3 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 50 43 5(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GUADELOUPE 64 13 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AVES 34 25 68(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) AVES 50 2 38(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) AVES 64 X 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 64 86 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARTINIQUE 50 25 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT LUCIA 34 22 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT VINCENT 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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