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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2017-09-20 10:57:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 200857 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 31(35) 13(48) 1(49) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 34(63) 3(66) X(66) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 2(32) X(32) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) GRAND TURK 34 1 5( 6) 38(44) 41(85) 9(94) X(94) X(94) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 12(12) 45(57) 15(72) 1(73) X(73) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 20(53) X(53) X(53) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 15(17) 45(62) 11(73) 3(76) 1(77) X(77) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 3( 3) 18(21) 12(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 36(39) 14(53) 3(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) SANTO DOMINGO 50 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE PR 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE PR 64 69 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 50 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) AGUADILLA PR 64 57 22(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 64 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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