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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2017-09-21 10:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 210842 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 1(15) 1(16) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 17(27) 11(38) 3(41) X(41) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 3 15(18) 34(52) 10(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) MAYAGUANA 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 27 69(96) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 2 65(67) 10(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GRAND TURK 64 X 30(30) 13(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) LES CAYES 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE BEATA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 76 10(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) PUERTO PLATA 50 4 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTO DOMINGO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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