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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-09-17 22:54:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 172053 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 34(55) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 27(60) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) 13(60) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 11(31) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 57(63) 20(83) 1(84) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 24(56) 2(58) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 21(36) 2(38) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 46(50) 31(81) 4(85) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 34(52) 4(56) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 4(38) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 60(69) 17(86) 1(87) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 21(59) 1(60) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 18(40) 1(41) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 62(79) 10(89) 1(90) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 11(62) X(62) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 11(43) 1(44) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 58(81) 6(87) X(87) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 9(60) X(60) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 7(39) X(39) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 52(88) 3(91) 1(92) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 53(62) 4(66) 1(67) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 5(47) 1(48) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 43(59) 22(81) 1(82) X(82) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 24(42) 1(43) X(43) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) X(22) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 4( 5) 39(44) 39(83) 9(92) X(92) X(92) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) 15(62) 1(63) X(63) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 13(39) X(39) X(39) BARBUDA 34 2 4( 6) 38(44) 25(69) 6(75) 1(76) X(76) BARBUDA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 34 2 7( 9) 58(67) 16(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87) ANTIGUA 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 22(42) 5(47) X(47) X(47) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) GUADELOUPE 34 2 39(41) 51(92) 4(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GUADELOUPE 50 X 4( 4) 57(61) 11(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) GUADELOUPE 64 X 1( 1) 36(37) 10(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) AVES 34 1 4( 5) 27(32) 35(67) 9(76) 1(77) X(77) AVES 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 11(44) X(44) 1(45) AVES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) DOMINICA 34 2 71(73) 23(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) DOMINICA 50 X 22(22) 50(72) 4(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) DOMINICA 64 X 11(11) 49(60) 5(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) MARTINIQUE 34 2 77(79) 7(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MARTINIQUE 50 1 25(26) 14(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) MARTINIQUE 64 X 18(18) 12(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SAINT LUCIA 34 2 26(28) 8(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) 1(40) SAINT LUCIA 50 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) BARBADOS 34 7 7(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARBADOS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT OF SPAIN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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