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Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 8
2024-10-07 10:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070856 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-07 10:41:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 08:41:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 09:23:10 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 32
2024-10-07 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070839 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 Kirk has almost completed extratropical transition. The inner core of the system has basically collapsed and deep convection is limited to the northern half of the circulation. The system is moving into a baroclinic zone, and it is expected to be an extratropical cyclone later today. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 65 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Strong shear, dry air, cool waters, and a decrease in upper-level dynamics should cause Kirk to gradually lose strength. However, the system's wind field will remain large and Kirk is still expected to be a strong extratropical low during the next couple of days. The intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest GFS solution. Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial motion is 050/26 kt. A turn to the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves within the fast mid-latitude westerly flow. This should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday. Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 40.2N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/1800Z 43.5N 21.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 43.9N 11.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/1800Z 46.0N 2.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics